Workforce modelling maps the current and forecast labour pool for a specialty or profession against projected health service demand.
Models are used to highlight specialties and career opportunities looking over a decade into the future.
This enables NSW Health to ensure our workforce has the capacity and capability to meet demand now and in the future.
Strategic workforce planning is based on long term modelling and projection of workforces. This is supported by the Health Professionals Workforce Plan (HPWP) 2012-2022 which recognises that "strategic workforce planning is a key component of service and business planning".
It also aligns with priority 5 of the new NSW Health Workforce Plan (HWP) 2022-2032 "our leaders are abreast of the factors driving future changes in workforce models and ready for gaps and emerging disruptions".
This workforce modelling and projection work is critical to ensuring we have medical, nursing, Aboriginal health and allied health workforces available to provide the population of NSW with the health care it requires.
The Workforce Modelling team review the workforce and develop a workforce flow, incorporating current and future demand versus projections. The team use the workforce flow to highlight and model workforce related risks and trends including:
Rather than report on historic data, our work provides projections based on demands. It aims to address future health workforce scenarios such as workforce shortages or oversupply. These issues can be caused by movements within existing workforces due to:
We embrace a systematic approach to workforce modelling and planning that includes feedback from local health districts and networks and using similar methods and tools as the Commonwealth. This approach supports more precise future forecasts and preparation for future supply challenges.
Local health districts and networks can use these models to develop the workforces we will need to deliver safe and quality care into the future.
